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Republican’s most vulnerable seats in the 2022 Midterm

The 2022 midterm primaries are officially underway, and both sides are gearing up for the fight of their lives. With abortion rights, inflation, and a foreign war on the line, the stakes couldn’t be higher. Let’s break down the biggest races in the Senate for the Republican party.

Pennsylvania: Pennsylvania Republican Pat Toomey announced he was retiring this year, and all eyes are on this crucial swing state. Before his retirement, Toomey was never very popular in his state. He only won by slim margins, and the reason he was victorious in the first place was because there was a Republican wave in his first term, and Trump carried him in his second. However, this doesn’t mean the race will be a cakewalk for the Democrats, as 2021 governor races have shown that Republican voters are getting energized. The Pennsylvania primaries are happening tomorrow, but according to recent polls, John Fetterman (Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor) will be the democratic nominee, and Mehmet Oz (the celebrity doctor) will win the Republican primary. All in all, we predict Democrat John Fetterman will be the next Pennsylvania Senator because of his experience in the Pennsylvania government versus Oz’s inexperience (plus controversy of Oz being a Turkish citizen.)

Wisconsin: While Republican Ron Johnson is up for re-election to a 3rd term, it isn’t going to come easy for him. The 67 year old Senator pledged earlier that he would only serve 2 terms, but has now broken that pledge. Furthermore, he has made several statements about him expressing interest in not running, and some statements can be used by the democratic party against him. Furthermore, he has also won by slim margins and likely was victorious for the same reason his companion Pat Toomey was. However, there is no clear Democratic candidate to oppose him, which is why the blog rates this race as a tossup. 

North Carolina: In North Carolina three term GOP senator Richard Burr has decided to retire. Now, unlike Johnson and Toomey, Burr was fairly popular in the state, winning by an average of 7.37 percentage points. However, now that Burr is retiring, North Carolina can be expected to return to its competitive state. On the Republican side, Trump endorsed representative Ted Budd is likely going to be the GOP nominee, while there is no leading candidate for the Democratic side (though former judge Cheri Beasly is the likely frontrunner.) Because of the lack of a Democrat contender, the blog predicts that Ted Budd will likely win this election. 

Thank you for reading the blog, I hope it was very informative. Next week we’ll be talking about the Democrats most vulnerable senate seats.

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