Historically, this year should be a cake walk for Republicans. Whenever a Democrat is in office, Republicans just seem to do better (see: 1994 and 2010 Midterms). And it seemed like this same phenomenon was going to strike again this year. But it isn’t. For context, in 2021, Republicans won the Virginia governor election for the first time since 2009. Even a few months ago, the consensus was that Republicans would take the Senate and sweep the House. But now, predictions have almost seemed to flip. Let’s break down why.
It’s all about the Money:
The Republicans have a money problem. The first part of the problem is obvious: The Democrats are out funding them. For example, in Georgia, incumbent Senator Rapheal Wornock has raised more than 3 times more than his opponent, Herschel Walker, and this trend can be applied anywhere in the Country. But the other problem is not so obvious. Republicans have stretched their resources thin. For example in early August, things were looking good for the Republicans, and Rick Scott, chair of the NRSC, which helps determine the party’s Senate election strategy, decided to allocate funds to the deep blue states of Washington and Colorado. This seems to be a particularly nonsensical move, considering Patty Murray, the Senator of Washington, has been in office for 30 years, and Micheal Bennet, Senator of Colorado, has been in office for 12 years. This and more has caused the Republican funds to empty, meaning that Republicans are cutting ad buys in competitive states such as Arizona.
The Republican Party’s candidates aren’t the best. And this can all be boiled down to one reason: Donald Trump has more influence on the nomination then any other former President, and picking candidates that he likes. These are usually not candidates that the general population likes. For example, in Georgia, former NFL player Herschel Walker won the nomination with Trump’s backing, however he isn’t doing very well in the polls (He has not had a lead since September). He also has said that evolution is fake, among other unfactual statements. Another example is in Arizona where Trump endorsed Senate nominee Blake Masters, who has criticized Mitch McConnell. This has caused McConell to donate less money to his campaign.
What it all boils down to: The point that I’m trying to illustrate is that this year should be good for Republicans. But it isn’t.