Learn Politics and History

How America’s polarization is impacting elections

The 2024 Presidential Election will most likely end up a rematch of 2020, where Joe Biden will face off against Donald Trump, except that this time Joe Biden is the incumbent, and Donald Trump is the opposition. However, the 2024 election is likely to end up having the same result as the 2020 election, with a few swing states. Today’s topic will address why the amount of swing states in the American political climate is becoming lower and lower.


America is more polarized than ever. This can be seen in how the media portrays certain candidates, and the politicization of social issues. But I think it can be best portrayed when you look at the senate composition of America. A whopping 45 states have both their senate seats belonging to the same party (including Democratic independents). This is a stark contrast from earlier years. For example, in 2008, Arkansas voted for Republican John McCain on the presidential level by 20 points. In the 2008 Arkansas Senate Election, Democrat Mark Pryor won by a huge 56 points. This kind of difference of voting between the Presidential and Senate voting is almost unheard of in the current political climate.

How this happened:

America’s polarization was always going to happen, and it had already started ramping up in the 90’s. However, it really fast tracked once the Obama and Trump era started. When Obama was elected, Republican leaders like Mitch McConnell tried their hardest to make Obama a one-term President, which included deadlocking congress, which caused mistrust between both parties. Then, when Trump was elected, and ever since then, the divide in America has deepened even more.

Good Signs:

Despite all the talk of political polarization, it isn’t all bad. For example, deep blue states like Massachusetts, Maryland, Vermont, and New Hampshire have all recently or currently have or had Republican governors. Ruby red states like Montana and West Virginia have Democratic Senators. The similarity between all of these people: they are all moderates of their party. So, in my opinion, the way to win in a state that heavily favors the other side is appearing as moderate as possible, so as not to off-put anyone. But that’s just my opinion, and we’ll have to wait and see if this polarization increases or not.

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