This Tuesday, February 27th, both the Democratic and Republican parties held primaries in Michigan. As expected, Trump continued to cruise towards the nomination, beating Nikki Haley resoundingly by almost 40 points. However, I think the Democratic primary is actually more important.
Michigan is home to the largest population of Muslim and Arab Americans in the country. This, along with its high share of non-Arab progressives make Michigan one of the most pro-Palestine states in the nation. Why is this important for the Democratic Primary? Well, since October 7th, President Biden has been vehemently pro-Israel. Because of this, many pro-Palestine voters in the Michigan Democratic party launched a campaign for Democratic primary goers to vote uncommitted in protest. This group isn’t small. In the Michigan Democratic primary around 14 percent of voters voted uncommitted, which will probably translate to around 130,000 votes by the time everything is counted.
Now at this point you may be thinking, why is this a bad sign for Biden? After all, he was still able to garner over 80 percent of the vote. The problem for Biden is that Michigan is a crucial swing state. In 2020, Biden won Michigan by a little over 150,000 votes. It is almost certain a large group of Biden’s 2020 Michigan coalition have voted uncommitted, and coupled with other swing voters who are already disinterested in Biden and the democrats, they just may be enough to swing Michigan’s 15 electoral votes to Trump’s column.
Now, there is one last point to address. How is Biden having difficulty with pro-Palestine voters different from Trump (the current front runner in 2024) having difficulties with Haley voters. When you look at the states where the results have been determined, most of them have open primaries, meaning that Democrats and independents can vote in the Republican primary, making it easier for Haley to pick up support against Trump, even if a sizable part of her coalition may not vote for her in a general election. Meanwhile, Biden is an incumbent President and his chances of winning in key swing states like Michigan actively rely on these Pro-Palestine voters turning out for him. This is why the large uncommitted share in Michigan is a bad sign for Biden’s campaign.