While the 2026 midterms probably don’t matter to most voters right now, they definitely do to the candidates running for them. In order to secure a spot on the ballot in the November general election, candidates of both parties are participating in a one year marathon in order to succeed in their own respective primary. Now, these are the three most important primary races I am looking at for next year.
Republican Louisiana Senate Primary:
The 2026 Louisiana Senate Primary for Republicans is notable for one major reason: the incumbent Republican, Bill Cassidy, is a staunch anti-Trumper. Not only did he vote to impeach Trump in 2021 due to his role in the Capitol Riots, he also refused to endorse Trump during the 2024 Presidential Election (even after Trump had won the primaries). While there was early speculation that Cassidy would face a primary attempt from Clay Higgins, a congressman who has gained popularity amongst the Republican base for his outspoken support of Trump, Higgins declined, and is running for re-election in his current district. This leaves Cassidy in a virtually head to head matchup with Louisiana State Treasurer John Flemming, who also supports Trump. While there has been early polling, it has been largely inconclusive. This race is important, because if Flemming wins it would show that Trump’s grip on the GOP is as strong as ever, but if Cassidy wins, it could reveal that Trump’s base might be becoming less enthusiastic.
Democratic Michigan Senate Primary:
The 2026 Michigan Senate Primary for Democrats is interesting, because like the Louisiana Senate race, it puts larger divides in the democratic party under a microscope. There are three major candidates running: Abdul El-Sayed, Mallow McMorrow, and Haley Stevens. El-Sayed, who previously served as the health director for Wayne county, is by far the most progressive of the field, earning endorsements from the likes of Bernie Sanders and Ro Khanna. McMorrow is a state senator who has garnered endorsements from more than a dozen local politicians. While McMorrow has the lowest national attention, she is possibly the most respected in the state. Finally, we have Haley Stevens, who has served in the US congress since 2019. Due to her more national profile, she has been backed by key national democrats like Nancy Pelosi, and as a result has an early lead. However, I think that each candidate winning could show an interesting story. If El-Sayed wins, it would be very similar to Zohran Mamdani’s upset victory in the New York mayor’s race, and could cause the Democrats to move further to the left. If McMorrow wins, it could show that the Democrats are denationalizing and putting more trust in individual state parties. The last and most boring outcome would be a Stevens win, since it would simply show that establishment Democrats are still the kingsmakers of the party.
Republican Texas Senate Primary:
The 2026 Texas Senate Primary for Republicans currently has the most national attention of any of these three races. It showcases longtime incumbent John Cornyn against state attorney general Ken Paxton. Paxton is primarying Cornyn because of his moderate stances and perceived lack of support with Trump (though Cornyn endorsed Trump and never voted to impeach him). However, Paxton has been heavily embattled by scandals. He was impeached by the heavily Republican Texas legislature due to 20 separate allegations of corruption, however narrowly survived by only one vote. Most recently, his wife, who is also a state senator, announced she was divorcing him (likely because of affairs that had been revealed before). To make the race more chaotic, congressman Wesley Hunt will also very likely enter the fray, making the race even more crowded. While some recent polls have shown Paxton with a lead, it truly feels like a coin flip right now.
While each of these races have very different backdrops, situations, and candidates, they all underscore very similar divides in both parties. No matter if it is the Trump versus traditional divide of the Republicans or the progressive versus moderate divide for the Democrats, it is clear that these primaries will be a preview of the politics of the next decade.