As the Democrats cling on to one of the narrowest majorities in decades, they are desperately looking for breathing room. Heres what to expect in 2022.
First, let’s get to the bottom line: Democrats aren’t keeping a trifecta. (A trifecta is when a party controls the house, senate, and presidency.) We know this because historically the party thats not in the Presidency does better in the house. Recent examples of this are the 2018 Democratic wave, 2010 Republican wave, and the 1994 Republican Revolution. Furthermore, the Democrats currently have a very small majority and in states that have GOP controlled legislatures the Republicans can gerrymander their way into winning the house. (Gerrymandering is when a party who controls the state legislature draws the house map unfavorably for the other party.) If Democrats keep the house something must have gone very wrong for the Republicans.
As for the senate, it’s a bit more unclear.
In the map above the light blue shows states where there are democrat incumbents, the light red show republican incumbents, and the dark red show retiring republicans. (In Iowa, there has been talk about incumbent Chuck Grassley retiring due to his old age, but it has not been confirmed. Republican Ron Johnson of Wisconsin said he may retire but it is not yet official.) The swing states in this senate election are Florida, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire. So let’s walk you through all of our calls for each swing state. Florida: Florida will likely stay red as the sitting Republican senator, Marco Rubio, is well liked by Republicans, Moderates, and Minorities in the state. Arizona: In Arizona, incumbent Democrat Mark Kelly will likely hold on because he is well liked with a high approval rating , and the state is rapidly going towards the left. Georgia: We expect this one to be a tossup, mostly because, while the state is trending blue and has a democratic incumbent, it is still a hotly contested swing state and the new voting rules may help out the Republicans a bit more. North Carolina: North Carolina is also a tossup because while incumbent Republican Richard Burr is retiring, there isn’t really a clear frontrunner on any side. Wisconsin: Wisconsin depends on what happens. As we said before incumbent Ron Johnson is thinking of retiring, but has not made his decision. If he retires then the race would likely tilt towards the Democrats but if not, then because of the incumbency factor, the Republicans would win. Pennsylvania: Like North Carolina, Pennsylvania also has a Republican incumbent retiring. John Fetterman, the Lieutenant Governor is the front runner for the Democratic nomination and is winning in the polls in the general election, so we say that the Democrats would likely win. New Hampshire: New Hampshire is somewhat like Wisconsin. If the popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu deicides to run, then Republicans would probably win. If he doesn’t then incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan would likely win a second term. To recap all this, if our prediction is correct, the Democrats will have 49 seats, Republicans will have 48 seats and there will be three toss ups.
While the house will likely go to the Republicans, we still don’t know about the senate. If the senate goes red then Republicans would control both congress’s and be able to block all of Biden’s agenda. If the Democrats win the senate then Biden would still be able to appoint cabinet members, judges, and supreme court justices.