You may recall that on Tuesday, November 2nd, Democrats lost the Virginia’s governor election in an upset, and held on to New Jersey by only the skin of their teeth. In Virginia, this was the result of poor strategy (like not defending themselves on the issue of education and critical race theory.) It also might be because of Biden’s unpopularity (only 42.8 percent of Americans approve of him, according to 538.) Or just the plain fact that Trump was not on the ballot, making it harder for Democrats to energize voters. In New Jersey, Governor Phil Murphy played his cards (mostly) right, but the unusually close election was again because of Biden’s unpopularity, and trump not being on the ballot.
But what does this mean for 2022? For starters, the passing of the infrastructure bill will help Democrats at least a little bit. On the downside, Trump won’t be on the ballot, which will hurt democrats. In terms of Biden’s approval rating, it’s unknown on that front, because many thing can happen before November of 2022. Right now, major prediction firms like Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball show the senate race as a tossup, with Cook being the only one that shows Democrats winning. For the governors elections, some races to look out for are Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Nevada, Kansas, Georgia and Arizona. In summary, it may be too early to predict the 2022 elections, but so far, the races seem close.