As election day inches closer and closer, more people have started paying attention. That is why I have decided to come out with my midterm prediction for the Senate (stay tuned for Governors Prediction, coming out next week!).
Above is the categorization I am using for the states. Solid Blue are Safe Democratic States, Solid Red are safe Republican States, and the Solid Yellow states are Races we should be watching. Let’s break each state down.
Alaska: While it might not seem like an important race, the results of Alaska will signify a trend in the country. This November, Alaska voters will decide if they want to send anti- Trumper Lisa Murkowski to a fourth senate term, or bring pro-Trump Republican Kelly Tshibaka to Washington. This is also an important race because Murkowski and Tshibaka may split evenly, causing the unlikely event that a Democrat might receive a plurality and go to the Senate.
Nevada: In Nevada, one-term incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto is facing re-election. While the state has trended more liberal in recent years, the polls in Nevada are close, with the recent polling average being that Masto will pull out by 1.7. Ultimately, we expect trends and data will be correct, and Masto will pull out.
Arizona: Despite Arizona being a traditionally Democratic state, it has trended Democratic in recent years. Incumbent Senator and former astronaut Mark Kelly is currently up for re-election, and he will likely have a fairly easy victory, as he is being pitted against a weak Republican candidate, and the polls are showing that Kelly is winning by 6.
Wisconsin: Two term incumbent Republican Ron Johnson is going against Democratic Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes. This is a race that quite honestly, is very hard to predict. The polls indicate that Barnes has a steady 4.3 percent lead, however given how unpredictable results can be in the rust-belt, we should not put too much weight on them. Given Johnson’s uncanny ability to claw his way back from the jaws of defeat (as proven by his 2016 re-election bid) and his incumbency, I am going to give the edge to Johnson.
Ohio: Given the Republican nature of the state, Ohio should be in no way close. However, due to a weak Republican candidate and a strong Democratic foe, it is. But when it comes down to it, polls show the Republican leading by 4, and national Democrats are barely pumping any money into the race. I expect Ohio to vote for the Republican, J.D. Vance.
Pennsylvania: As you might have seen in the news, the Pennsylvania Senate Race is between Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman and Dr. Oz. While John Fetterman is winning the media and personality battle, while also leading in the polls, if Dr. Oz can effectively highlight Fetterman’s hesitance to debate, this race might become competitive again. But for now, we expect John Fetterman to be the next US Senator from Pennsylvania.
North Carolina: In North Carolina, the Democratic Candidate is former Judge Cheri Beasley, and Republican Congressman Ted Budd. While the polls indicate a close rate (Budd is only winning by 0.7) due to the Republican nature of the state, I expect North Carolina will go red this year.
Georgia: Incumbent Democrat Raphael Wornock is running against former football player Herschel Walker. While this race should be close (and still is) Wornock has widened the gap due to his opponents health concerns, and controversial statements. I expect that Wornock will be elected to his first full term.
My Final Prediction:
As you can see, the Democrats will retain the Senate, according to my prediction. However, there is still a lot of time left, and things could change. We’ll be covering all of it.