Last week, I promised that I would predict the Governor Elections. So now I am. Here is the map I am starting with (blue is Democrat, red is Republican, Yellow are the races I am analyzing):
I will analyze each of the yellow states, starting with Nevada, and ending at Pennsylvania.
Nevada: There is no doubt that Nevada will be a competitive race this November. However, it will also be an easy state to predict. Due to Nevada’s overall Democratic lean, and the fact that incumbent Democrat Steve Sisolak is still slightly favored to win in the polls (his lead was slightly tainted by two most likely fluke polls, but it will probably come back to normal soon) I expect Sisolak to pull out.
Arizona: The state of Arizona was a once Conservative bastion that is now trending Blue. To add to this, Democrat Katie Hobbs has a small lead in polling. I believe that this is enough to put Hobbs over the top, flipping Arizona Democratic.
Kansas: You might be surprised to see Kansas here, but I have it for good reason. In 2018, now incumbent Democratic Governor Laura Kelly beat her Republican opponent by almost 5 percent. However, Kansas is still Kansas, and this cycle will not be as favorable for her. However there is a lack of polling data in the state, and therefore, I will put Kansas in the “hard to tell” category.
Texas: While incumbent Republican Governor Greg Abbot’s challenger, Beto O Rourke, is putting up a good fight, Texas is still Texas,and Texas is a red state. The race might be getting a lot of publicity, but the poll’s show that Greg Abbot is winning by around 7 points. I’ll side with the polls.
Florida: Florida is not competitive. The only reason I am featuring it is because Florida is the state of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, one of the early 2024 GOP frontrunners. Expect DeSantis to pull out by around 5 points.
Georgia: Georgia is a rematch of the heavily publicized and scrutinized 2018 race. However, don’t expect the results to be any different. I expect Republican incumbent governor Brian Kemp to pull out.
Wisconsin: Wisconsin is another state that is going to be extremely close. However, Democrats have the incumbency advantage with Tony Evers, and polls show Evers winning by around two points. Expect the state to narrowly go Democratic.
Michigan: The Michigan election might be talked about a lot, but it won’t be that much of a nail biter. Michigan Democratic Governor Gretchen Whitmer is still fairly popular in the state, and is expected to win by around 8, according to polls. I expect the same.
Pennsylvania: The Senate election in this state is getting lots of attention, but not as much for the governors election. For good reason too. Democrat Josh Shapiro is running against extremist Republican Doug Mastriano, and polls expect Shapiro to win by 6. I agree.
As you can see, Democrats are holding the line a lot more favorably than you might think (many people thought that a red wave would be coming). As always, make sure to read our newest post, which will come out next week.