Learn Politics and History

Pundits said it would be a red wave. It wasn’t.

Intro (I was right): 

Republicans should have had this election cycle in the bag. Instead, they find themselves thinking about what they did wrong. And this is because going into election day, everyone expected Republicans to win – and win by a lot. Everyone except me of course, because in my October 6th post “How the Republicans are going to Lose the Senate” and my September 4rth post “September Midterm Predictions” I predicted almost this exact outcome. Anyway, in the wise words of a generic ted talker, let’s not dwell on the past – instead, think about the future. So let’s think about the future. How do these 2022 election results impact the future?

What are the Republicans doing?: 

Well, let’s start with the identity of the Republican party. In the aftermath of a very disappointing election season, Republicans are putting the blame on Trump. However, one silver lining for the Republicans is that Florida governor Ron DeSantis won his race in Florida by almost 20 percent. Naturally, this has caused conservative media to put Trump and DeSantis against each other. However, this beef is very lopsided, with Trump issuing a series of attacks on Ron DeSantis, even going as far as to accidentally admitting that in 2018 he sent the FBI down to Florida to rig the election in favor of DeSantis (a claim that is most likely false). DeSantis, on the other hand, has ignored him, however, I’m not sure how long he can continue to do that. Meanwhile, in Washington, Republican Senators are in disarray due to party infighting between Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell and Florida Senator Rick Scott. Most likely, a threat to McConnells leadership will be posed, however, I expect McConnell will remain in power. Meanwhile, Republicans will most likely seize control of the House of Representatives, however House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy will likely have a rocky road to speakership due to the fact that deep right conservatives might also launch a bid for speaker, which could possibly lead to a Democratic Speaker in a Republican house.

The Wider Scope:

There are three key takeaways from these midterms. One, the Republican Party is going to go through a big change. Two, the Democrats feel that their policies have been vindicated. Three, it’s going to be a messy few years in Washington.

Note: The GOP has taken the House. I have also predicted this in one of the earlier post’s mentioned above. This was widely expected since the 2020 election ended, and the red wave has not taken place.

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