The midterms are (basically) over, and control of both houses of Congress have been decided. Republicans won the house, albeit narrowly, and Democrats won the Senate, also in a narrow way. This election cycle has been unanimously agreed upon to be a flop by Republicans, and while there is still a runoff Senate Election in Georgia, power in Washington has been all but decided. So let’s turn our attention to 2024, and see which Republican candidates could make a run for President.
Donald Trump: Trump did something very unique. He announced his campaign for President one week after the midterms ended. While this is very unusual, it could either be a blessing or a curse for Trump. It could be a blessing because running 8 months before most candidates would announce might be able to clear a primary field, however the possible downside is that in that 8 months of Trump basically running alone might exhaust the public, causing people to turn on Trump. Also, if the 2024 Presidential election is a rematch of 2024, it could possibly be more of a referendum on Trump, then a referendum on Biden. The Republican Party also might not be happy about his run as Trump’s influence has caused defeats in 2018, 2020, and now 2022.
Ron DeSantis: The reigning Florida governor enjoyed a landslide victory in the 2022 midterms, and all eyes are on him in 2024. His conservative, Trump-like policies have given him stature in the Republican Party, and is widely regarded as a more appealing version of Trump. Furthermore, DeSantis showed he can win in competitive states by winning Florida by a whopping 19 points, and conservative media has already starting abandoning Trump and moving towards DeSantis. While you might be thinking that DeSantis could let Trump have the spotlight in 2024 and simply run in 2028, but DeSantis is term limited, and in politics, momentum is everything. However, right now, DeSantis seems to be more focused on governing than planning a Presidential bid, so if he announces, don’t expect a statement until mid 2023.
Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia governor may have become a rising star in the Party after he upset the Democrats in 2021, but he has been quiet about a Presidential run. The reason we put him here is because Trump has actually attacked Youngkin, and if the current Republican nominee frontrunner is scared of Youngkin, I thought I should at least give him a mention. Youngkin is quite a moderate Republican, except on the issue of education where he takes a hardline stance against Critical Race Theory. His brand of conservatism might actually work better than Trump or DeSantis in a national election, however it would take a miracle for him to get past the primary’s. He has also not made any intention of running for President clear.
What it all comes down too: Months ago, Trump would have been the clear option for the Republican nomination. Now, after a disappointing midterm election with his name written all over it, his nomination path seems a bit more foggy.