Now that the 2022 midterms are over, the 2024 Presidential Race is rapidly approaching. While pundits have been talking about a presidential bid from Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, In all likelihood, when we make it out of the primaries the Presidential race will be between two very familiar people – Joe Biden and Donald Trump. The fact of the matter is that Biden is an incumbent, therefore making his nomination basically guaranteed, and for Trump, the 45th President still has enough grip on the party to fend off a challenger like DeSantis.
Now let’s list some of the common traits of Biden and Trump. In 2024, Trump will be as unpopular as ever and is getting very old. We already see signs of Trump’s popularity decreasing with Republicans (even though he still holds a strong grip on the party) and is still universally hated by Democrats. On the other hand, Biden is going to be 82 in 2024, and is universally hated by Republicans, while many concerned Democrats want change in the Party.
Because of the reasons above, I find it very possible that we see a third party garner significant popularity. Moderate voters from both parties who don’t particularly like any of the candidates may pick a 3rd Party Candidate, such as moderate senator Kyrsten Sinema from Arizona, or Joe Manchin from West Virginia. However, this is still a fairly low chance of this happening, because many moderates may hold their nose and vote for either Trump or Biden, or just not vote at all.
Now, at this point, you may be thinking: Have third parties ever been successful in the modern era? So I will give you guys a brief run down. Well 2016 is the latest example. In 2016, Evan McMullin ran as an independent and got 20 percent of the vote in the state, despite Trump eventually winning it. Gary Johnson also took sizable vote shares in all 50 states. In 2000, Ralph Nadar may have caused Bush to win the election by taking crucial Florida votes away from Al Gore. And in 1992 and 1996 Ross Perot was able to secure 18 percent and 8 percent of the vote respectively.
So will there be a third party uprising in 2024. Well, there is always a chance, and perhaps a greater chance in 2024 then previous years. But at the end of the day, only time will tell.