The Thirteen Keys: How to Predict the 2024 Presidential Election

Every 4 years, Americans are bombarded with news, ads, and flyers about the upcoming Presidential Election. Among this flurry comes a plethora of predictions and polls that seek to give insights on how states will vote, and what the results will be. While many companies have been made to try to poll and predict the outcome, the most accurate forecasts surprisingly come from only one man.

In 1981, historian Alan Lichtman created the “Keys to the White House”, which was partially adapted from methods for Earthquake Prediction. This checklist of 13 true and false statements have since correctly predicted the winner of every presidential election from 1984 to 2020*.

*Lichtman predicted that Al Gore would win against George W. Bush in the 2000 presidential election, which did not happen. However, Lichtman argued that he predicted the popular vote correctly, which Gore won. Furthermore, he also argued that Gore would have won the election if not for improper voting counting in Florida, where Bush only one by 537 votes. If Gore had won Florida, he would have won the election.

The 13 keys is a list of 13 statements that are either true or false. If five or fewer statements are false, the incumbent party should win. If 6 or more statements are false, the incumbent party should lose. The 13 keys are as follows. 

1. Party mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
2. No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
4. No third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
5. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
6. Strong long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
7. Major policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
8. No social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
9. No scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
10. No foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. 
11. Major foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
12. Charismatic incumbent: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
13. Uncharismatic challenger: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.

Now, I will try to use the 13 keys to give my prediction on the winner of this upcoming presidential election between Biden and Trump.

1. The democrats had a net loss in house seats from 2018 to 2022, so this key is false.
2. While there were whisperings of a potential primary challenger to Biden, they did not come to fruition and Biden would win the primaries with ease, making this key true.
3. Since Biden is an incumbent seeking reelection, this key is true.
4. While it is currently shaky, and a lot can change, Robert F Kennedy Jr has current average poll numbers of around 10 percent, making him a significant third party candidate, and this key is false. 
5. The US is not in a recession, so this key is true.
6. It is close, but I would lean this key is true as while inflation is high, the chances that the US gets into a recession is relatively low, and the real per capita economic growth is increasing
7. There is a major policy change, as Biden’s democratic policies are a stark contrast to Trump’s republican ones, so this key would be true. 
8. This is true, as even with the college protests, there is no major, sustained unrest. 
9. The hunter Biden allegations were shaky and have largely gone away, so this key is true. 
10.  Again a bit shaky, but Biden has failed on the Afghanistan withdrawal, and with the Ukraine invasion and Israel-Palestine war showing no signs of stopping, I would lean towards falsehood. 
11. Biden has not achieved a major success in foreign policy, so this key is also false. 
12.  Biden is not charismatic, so false.
13.  Trump is not charismatic, so true.

We have found that exactly 5 statements are false, which would mean Biden is predicted to barely win. However, being so far from election day, we will just have to wait and see what the actual outcome will be.