The 2024 Presidential Election will be one of the closest ever in modern history. While most presidential election cycles (even the “close” ones) usually have a designated favorite and then another candidate trailing a bit behind. However, this election will go down to the wire. Most polling averages show a completely neck and neck race, which is basically unheard of on the presidential level, especially this early on. For reference, in 2020, an election which was only decided by several 10,000 votes in a few swing states, Biden was still leading by around 8 points. But why is this? In this blog, we will analyze the reason why this election is going to be so close.
Perhaps one of the biggest reasons as to why the two candidates are polling so close is because of an unexpected surge from Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who is running as a third party candidate. In fact, according to the 538 polling aggregate, Biden and Trump are both neck and neck at 40 percent, with RFK jr holding at around 10 percent, which is huge for a third party. While it is too early to definitively see who RFK takes the most votes out of, it is almost certain that if he continues polling this way, he will impact the election in a major way.
Another factor that will impact this election heavily is obviously Trump’s New York conviction. Before the conviction, Trump was gaining momentum and consistently leading in polls by one or two points. However, despite raising a huge sum of cash directly after his conviction, the polls have started showing him consistently trailing Biden by 1 or 2 points, including every poll released this week.
However, it is time to address the elephant in the room, and perhaps one of the biggest factors that will influence this election: the debates. While historically debates haven’t really impacted most voters’ choices, with an election this close, every vote matters, meaning that only a few voters’ minds need to be changed to influence the election.
In summary, this election will be one of the closest in modern American history, and I believe there are 3 major factors that will influence it: third parties, Trump’s legal woes, and the debates. However, it is still so early, and bigger unforeseen events may pop up that can change the results even more.