In 2008, Barack Obama defeated John McCain to become President, winning 28 states and 365 votes in what is still the largest landslide of the 21st century. Not only did Obama run up margins in traditional Democratic strongholds and capture swing states, but he also found himself within striking distance of McCain in multiple Republican dominated regions. By 2012 however, this coalition, made up of Iraq war opposers and people reeling from the great recession across the nation, had eroded. Conservative strongholds like Indiana (which Obama had unexpectedly won in 2008), Missouri, Montana, and the Dakotas all went from being competitive in the previous election to shifting towards the right by around 10 percent each. In fact, Obama was the first President to lose states and electoral votes while winning a second term since 1916 (and only the second in history overall). While the shift from a large voting base with different backgrounds to a more homozygous coalition should have set off alarms for Democrats, Obama’s seemingly comfortable re-election allowed Democrats to temporarily ignore warning signs.
While the two men are very different in both personality and politics, Trump’s 2024 triumph seems to have some parallels with Obama’s 2008 victory. Last election, Trump went further than just solidifying gains with white working class voters in the rust belt as he won almost 50 percent of Latino voters and made a noticeable improvement among Black voters too. This trend could be seen throughout the electoral map, as Trump won Florida by double digits for the first time in three decades, comfortably flipped Arizona (winning by more than 5 percent), and became the first Republican in 20 years to win Nevada. Along with this he significantly improved his numbers in New York state and caused New Jersey, a strong Democrat state, to be competitive. Interestingly, the rust belt states that famously propelled Trump to victory in 2016 (Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania), did not comparatively swing very much in Trump’s favor, again illustrating how it was actually newer supporters of different backgrounds that handed him an impressive win in both the popular vote and electoral college.
However, in 2028, Trump will not be on the ballot again, and the next Republican nominee will likely have to recreate Trump’s coalition. It can be argued that Trump chose JD Vance to be his vice president for this exact reason, as he has similar populist views as Trump and is from Ohio, a now Republican state that is crucial for any GOP victory. However, Vance’s popularity among newer minority voters remains to be seen, as Trump has been significantly slipping with these demographics too. If Vance clinches a narrow victory in 2028 through the Rust Belt while conceding Latino and Black vote, his party may risk becoming more homozygous, just like the Democrats in 2012.
However, while losing newer voters is an issue, perhaps a larger (and more publicized) one is the new divide between the core Republican base. This could be most clearly seen at Turning Point USA’s recent Americafest where both factions of this MAGA divide, lead by commentators Ben Shapiro and Tucker Carlson respectively, ferociously debated support of Israel, reactions to Charlie Kirk’s murder, and platforming controversial commentators, among other issues. While Vance (who was pre-emptively endorsed by Erika Kirk) attempted to bridge this gap during his closing speech at the conference, he did not explicitly take a side, which could be a preview of his strategy in 2028.
However, this divide is not just among the ordinary MAGA base or social media commentators, it can be seen among established politicians too. While Vance is certainly the runaway favorite to win the nomination for 2028, multiple Republican senators are also hinting at potential runs. For example Texas senator Ted Cruz has made headlines in recent months through his opposition to actions from Trump’s FCC that he deems censorship and picking a fight with Tucker Carlson over Israel and Anti-Semitism on the right. Many republican insiders are saying that he could try to angle himself as a more traditional republican in the next election. Furthermore, Kentucky Senator Rand Paul, who is on the libertarian wing of the GOP, recently refused to endorse JD Vance in 2028 due to disagreements over the Vice President’s trade and tariff policy, which he considers to be an unnecessary tax and not a conservative plan.
Ultimately, I think what 2028 most boils down too is if Vance (or any other Republican nominee) can maintain Trump’s diverse 2024 coalition. If he can then we are likely seeing a more long lasting political realignment in favor of the Republicans. However, it is equally as likely that the range of Trump’s movement causes it to collapse under itself, with the MAGA base dissipating in the same way the Obama democrats did. The 2026 midterms will likely be a good indicator of how the winds are moving, and I will be covering it every step of the way. Stay tuned!