Throughout my previous posts, I have discussed extensively about the ideological divides inside political parties. On the Democrat’s side, there is a growing divide between firebrand progressives who make headlines for constantly opposing Trump, and more grounded, moderate candidates who tend to focus on so-called “kitchen table issues”. On the Republicans side, more and more questions are being asked about how the party will reshape after Trump. Will Republicans continue embracing Trump’s MAGA brand, return to the more traditional neo-conservatism of the past, or find a lane in the middle of these two extremes? Well, we could potentially get an answer to this question in less than a month, as on March 3rd Texas will hold primaries to determine both the Democratic and Republican nominees for senate, and there is no clear favorite for either race. I’m going to break down each primary, the candidates in them, and what each potential win says about the future of American politics.
Dem Primary:
The Texas Democratic Primary is a neck and neck race between Congresswomen Jasmine Crocket and State Representative James Talarico. While the contest started off relatively civil, it has turned bitter due to the candidates’ contrasting political styles. Crocket has risen to the mainstream of national politics due to her harsh criticisms of President Trump, and has been labeled a “fighter” by both Democratic voters and pundits. However, her outspokenness can also be a liability, as she has previously embroiled herself in controversy after calling Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbot, who is disabled and uses a wheelchair, “Governor Hot Wheels”. She has also been criticized for not focusing enough on mainstream issues, and her electability is a major concern, as many Republican pundits and politicians have said they would prefer to have Crockett be the democratic nominee, as she would be easier to beat. On the other hand, Talarico has gained a following due to his faith based approach to politics and perceived down to earthness. Talarico notably appeared on Joe Rogan’s podcast, where Rogan told Talarico that he should run for president, which further cemented Talarico as a rising star in the Democratic Party. So far, the biggest controversy in the race comes from an allegation that Talarico had called Colin Allred, a former congressman and candidate who had dropped out, a “mediocre Black man” in a private conversation. While this allegation caused Allred to endorse Crocket, Talarico simply responded that the allegation had mischaracterized what he was saying, and there is no video or audio evidence. So far, neither Crocket nor Talarico have been endorsed by prominent national democrats like Hakeem Jefferies, Chuck Schumer, or Nancy Pelosi. If Crocket wins, it would show that Democratic voters are prioritizing Trump fighters, even over major electability concerns. It could also be a foreshadowing of 2028, where Gavin Newsom, who has also raised his profile by fighting Trump, is widely expected to throw his hat in the ring. On the other hand, a Talarico win would signal that Democrats are choosing candidates pragmatically and generally appreciate politicians who focus on more grounded issues.
GOP Primary:
The GOP Primary is a three way race between longtime incumbent Senator John Cornyn, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, and US House Congressman Wesley Hunt. Senator Cornyn, who has served since 2003, is considered to be part of the establishment wing of the Republican Party, as he has held many leadership positions and has previously supported gun control measures, aid to Ukraine, and some residency for undocumented children. For these reasons, he has been attacked by Attorney General Paxton, a hardline MAGA Republican. While Paxton has positioned himself as an ardent supporter of President Trump, as he has faced criticism for a number of ethical and legal issues surrounding his conduct, and was almost impeached and removed from office by the Republican Texas legislature. He is also marred by moral and character issues, as his ex-wife has recently divorced him due to an alleged affair. Compared to John Cornyn, who is seen as unexciting and unoffensive, Paxton is very controversial and polarizes Republicans, causing him to be seen as a far less electable candidate. Representative Hunt was the last to toss his hat into the ring, and is a happy medium between both Cornyn and Paxton, as he is nonoffensive but has a fairly MAGA track record. While Cornyn has a fundraising lead, the polls are neck and neck between him and Paxton with Hunt trailing in third. Texas has a runoff primary system, which means that if no candidate receives over 50 percent of the vote, only the top two candidates advance. President Trump for his part has declined to give an endorsement for any candidate, instead praising each of them. A Cornyn win would demonstrate that the Republican establishment can still create a winning message, a Paxton win would signal that Trump conservatism is here to stay, and a Hunt win would be somewhere in between.