Just a few years ago, Katie Porter seemed like a rising star in the Democratic Party. She had won three consecutive competitive US House elections in the moderate Orange County while still unabashedly championing progressive policies throughout her tenure. As a result, in 2024, she took what was seemingly the next step in any politician’s journey, running for Senate. However, this would quickly backfire as she finished third place in the open primary, simultaneously losing both a house seat and a senate seat in the next congress. Almost iImmediately afterwards she would plot a comeback attempt for California Governor, which also failed miserably, as in June’s primary election she finished 5th in the open primary and received less than 5 percent of the vote. Today, I will break down how this fall from power occurred, and how it parallels the stories of other politicians.
Arguably the largest reason for Porter’s losses in both the senate race and the governors race is that she heavily overestimated her popularity in the grander democratic party. While she had gone viral during the first Trump administration and Biden administration for her tough questioning of corporate executives, she had failed to build relationships with party brokers like Nancy Pelosi and other leaders. This would prove to be costly when during the 2024 Senate Primary, she was only endorsed by one sitting house democrat. Usually, when candidates lack concrete establishment support, they need a strong grassroots movement behind them. For example, this year Maine Democrat Graham Platner has been able to power past scandals and the Schumer backed sitting Governor in the senate primary through huge progressive and union support. However, despite Platner’s numerous controversies, he seems to have a charisma and likeability factor that Porter simply does not.
For example, during her house tenure it was widely reported that Porter’s office had poor working conditions for aides, who she allegedly often belittled and berated. Furthermore, during her governor run, a video surfaced of Porter cussing at an aide who was simply trying to correct her on a zoom meeting. However, Porter’s likeability issues even extended past her private office and into the public press. Most notably, in a 2025 CBS interview, Porter was criticized for temperamental behavior with a reporter who questioned her strategy for winning over moderates. The likeability factor is not just unique to Porter however. It was perhaps the biggest factor in tanking Hillary Clinton’s 2016 bid, and was also very detrimental to Ron Desantis in his 2024 Presidential run, where outsiders noted his lack of face to face charisma.
Ultimately, electoral politics is somewhat like a matrix. It is a grid with two columns: establishment support (institutional donor funding, and grassroots support (general popularity and likeability). If a candidate checks both these boxes, like Obama, the sky is the limit for their potential. Many congressional leaders like Mitch McConnell and Nancy Pelosi are able to keep afloat through heavy establishment support, even though they suffer in terms of widespread likeability. On the other hand, in this senate primary cycle, we see republicans like Ken Paxton and democrats like Graham Platner upset the national party and power through scandals through individual likeability. Unfortunately, in Porter’s case, she couldn’t check any of the two boxes, which ultimately led to her losses.