Much has been said about President Trump’s actions in relation to the Iran War. While Democrats have obviously condemned the war, the more interesting reactions are the ones of Trump’s republican supporters. While the majority of prominent conservative politicians and officials, like Vice President JD Vance, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, and Senate leader John Thune have supported the war, there has also been extremely vocal opposition. For example, Joe Kent, the director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resigned over disagreement in the Iran War and the influence of Israel in decision-making. Tucker Carlson, a podcaster and former Fox News host who was a key supporter of Trump in all three of his presidential campaigns has sharply criticized the President, and has even apologized for his role in getting him elected. Trump has responded to these attacks by issuing his own, calling media figures like Carlson who no longer support him “low-iq”, and effectively attempting to banish them from the MAGA movement. On the other hand, more interventionist conservatives like Lindsey Graham, Mark Levin, and Ben Shapiro have drifted closer to Trump after the start of the Iran War. This dynamic has prompted much analysis on the current state of the MAGA coalition and its future. At this blog, I have already discussed this topic heavily, most recently in my post about the Texas senate primaries (stay tuned for the Republican runoff on March 26th), so I thought that today it would be a good idea to look back at Trump’s current relationship with his previous high profile supporters and allies. Through this, you will see that the current MAGA feud is not a new phenomenon, but instead a continuation of a long documented pattern.
Mike Pence:
As you may recall, Mike Pence was Donald Trump’s Vice President during his first term, from 2017 to 2021. And throughout those four years, Pence largely stood in lockstep with Trump, defending him despite his numerous controversial statements and actions. All of this changed on January 6th, 2021. Despite Trump’s repeated denials of his defeat during the 2020 Presidential Election, and the growing stop the steal movement, Pence would come to accept the results, certifying the election after the capital riots, and even attending Biden’s inauguration. This would lead to sharp criticism from Trump, who said Pence lacked courage, and in turn Pence unsuccessfully ran against Trump in the 2024 Republican primaries and refused to endorse him after he won. While Trump has fallen out with many key figures during his first term, such as Speaker Paul Ryan, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and others, Pence is perhaps the most notable example.
Marjorie Taylor Green:
Another key Trump supporter who has come to oppose Trump is former legislator Marjorie Taylor Greene, although her opposition has come from a completely different place than Pence. In fact, Greene was one of Trump’s earliest supporters, and was one of the few Republicans who seemed to genuinely continue backing Trump after the January 6th Capitol Riot. For four years, Greene vigorously backed Trump in his pursuit to return to the White House. However, after Trump actually assumed office again, Greene began to criticize Trump, largely because he had seemingly reneged on his campaign promises. This includes attacking Trump’s hesitation and opposition to a full release of the Epstein files, which caused Trump to revoke his endorsement for her. While Greene would leave the house early, she has continued to attack Trump, most notably calling for him to be removed due to the Iran War. While this fallout from Trump initially seemed surprising, it does fit into a bigger trend when she was in office, as she previously was kicked out of the House Freedom Caucus and feuded with Speaker Mike Johnson. While Pence’s opposition has come from the more moderate, neoconservative side of the party, Marjorie Taylor Greene’s new opposition has come from the more extreme MAGA side of the party.
After January 6th, the traditional conservatives had abandoned Trump and it was the MAGA side that kept him afloat. Now, during the Iran War, it is the MAGA, “No New Wars” side of the Republican party which is opposing Trump, and those same more traditional, neoconservative politicians are supporting him. With these continual divides and shifts, it seems that the only fixture of the MAGA movement is Trump himself. But with a coalition this fluid and fragile, the question is if it will last past Trump. The answer to this question, of course, is that it depends and we will see in future elections. However, one of those future elections is coming quite soon. On May 19th, Kentucky Congressman Thomas Massie, a libertarian republican who has become a sharp critic of Trump due to his opposition to the Big Beautiful Bill, Iran War, and support of full Epstein files disclosure, will face off against a Trump endorsed challenger in the GOP primary. If Ed Gallerin, Massie’s Trump endorsed opponent, wins then it shows Trump’s hold on the party is still very strong. If Massie wins, then it could signal that Trump’s control is slipping, and that could lead to more Republican politicians openly defying Trump. Whatever the result, I’ll keep you posted.