During the Trump era, Democrats have held the House of Representatives for only two consecutive terms, from 2019 to 2023. In both terms, they made the decision to impeach Trump, which did not bear fruit in the senate either time. Now, if current polling and historical trends are any indication, the dems seem poised to retake the House in the 2026 midterms, even despite aggressive Republican gerrymandering. Despite leaders like Hakeem Jefferies denying that Democrats are actively planning impeachment next term, notable Republicans like Speaker Mike Johnson have stoked fears that the Dems would attempt to remove Trump if they obtain power. Now, will it actually happen?
In December of 2019, after months of increasing pressure, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the democratic house caucus launched an impeachment inquiry into President Trump, alleging that he attempted to coerce Ukraine into investigating Joe Biden and his family by withholding military aid and diplomatic support. Ultimately, the effort died in the senate, when a Republican majority acquitted Trump. A large part of why this impeachment gained steam was because some Democratic lawmakers had been attempting to impeach Trump from the day he first took office in 2017. This attitude is due to a multitude of reasons, like Trump’s rhetoric, possible Russian collision in the 2016 election, and Trump losing the popular vote to Hillary Clinton.
The second impeachment attempt was in January of 2021, where Democrats alleged Trump was responsible for inciting the January 6th capitol riot. While significantly more Republican senators voted to convict in the senate (7), the measure ultimately failed, as many in the GOP stated that even if Trump was culpable for the events of that day, it is not constitutional to impeach a former President. Despite failing, this was likely the best chance for Democrats to impeach Trump.
Now, coming back to a potential 2027 impeachment, Democrats would likely focus on the President’s controversial dealings such as alleged insider trading, crypto ventures, the anti-weaponization fund, and more, which they could brand as corruption. However, while there may be a case to overcome the preliminary house vote and move to a senate trial, I don’t think that Democrats should do this. The first reason is obvious: Democrats will never be able to flip enough Republicans to obtain 67 votes in the Senate. The second is that the 2019 and 2021 impeachments both did more than just determine if Trump was guilty or not; they also undermined him politically at ratcheted liberal excitement up, which would theoretically hurt him in a future election. Now, this is not the case, as Trump is term-limited from running in 2028, and will become a lame duck President. As a result, it would be a strategically better option to focus on potential 2028 GOP contenders like Vance and Rubio, rather than going after Trump.