The 2026 midterms are now less than 2 months away, and we are officially in election season. Despite substantial republican redistricting, it seems fairly certain that Democrats will take back the house for the first time since 2020. On the other hand, in the Senate, it is much harder to predict who will win. While at the start of the cycle it seemed quite likely that Republicans would retain the senate, it is now looking like a dead even tossup. Therefore, I will be giving my reasoning and predictions for the most hotly contested senate races of 2026.
While there are 35 senate seats up for election in 2026, many of them will not be particularly close and are solidly Republican or Democrat. If we factor in these states, there are 44 seats we can assume to be controlled by Democrats, and 46 seats we can assume to be controlled by Republicans. So, I’m going to focus on the remaining 10, which will decide which party controls the Senate in the final stint of Trump’s presidency.
Maine: The Maine senate race has been highly publicized, especially due to the Democrat’s previous ultra-progressive nominee, Graham Platner, dropping out due to many serious allegations and controversies. However, they have since replaced him with Troy Jackson, a respected lumberjack who has been a fixture in Maine state politics for over two decades. Even though Maine is a fairly blue state, with Kamala Harris winning it by 7 percent in 2024, Jackson still faces a tall task: He is going up against 5 term incumbent Susan Collins, a relatively moderate Republican who has a knack for surviving competitive races. In Collins’s 2020 campaign, she won her race by a comfortable 8 percent margin despite Biden winning Maine on the Presidential level by 9 percent. However, times have changed and the Republican party has gotten more unpopular in Maine, with polls showing Jackson narrowly leading by 3 percent. Because these midterms are expected to be a blue year, along with the national GOP ground in the polling, I expect Democrat Troy Jackson to narrowly squeak out a win by 1 to 2 percent.
New Hampshire: Compared to the situation in Maine, New Hampshire’s senate race is going much more under the radar. It is an open seat, with the incumbent Democratic senator retiring. While the primaries have not happened yet, the matchup is all but set, with incumbent Representative Chris Pappas running as the Democrat, and former GOP Senator John Sununu running as the Republican. Both these candidates are established on the New Hampshire political scene, have strong backing from their respective parties, and are generally uncontroversial. Given that New Hampshire voted for Harris in 2024 and polls show Pappas ahead, I expect New Hampshire to vote Democrat by around 10 percent.
North Carolina: My views on the North Carolina race have been quite clear already, and I have already written a full post about it. Despite North Carolina voting for Trump all 3 times, I expect Democrat Roy Cooper to defeat Republican Micheal Whatley comfortably, by around 4 to 5 points. This is because Roy Cooper is a popular former Governor, who served from 2017 to 2025, and has already won many statewide races, while Micheal Whatley is unproven electorally. Furthermore, the polls show Cooper winning by around 8 percent.
Georgia: In Georgia, incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is running against Republican representative Mike Collins. Georgia seems to be trending to the left, as Trump only won Georgia by around 2 percent in 2024 despite improving by a larger margin in the national popular vote. Furthermore, Ossoff is a charismatic speaker and has become fairly popular in Georgia, with polls showing him up by around 8 percent. Therefore, I expect Ossoff to win in Georgia by a similar margin to Cooper in North Carolina.
Texas: The Texas senate race has received lots of attention, and I have also written about it a couple times in the past. The Republican nominee, attorney general Ken Paxton, is very controversial and has been marred by scandals. He got the nomination by defeating 4 term incumbent John Cornyn in the primary, largely due to an endorsement by Trump. Cornyn was well liked by his Senate colleagues, and as a result GOP senators are not spending money towards helping Paxton, with Trump-aligned SuperPACS powering his campaign. The Democratic nominee, James Talarico, is a member of the Texas state house and a former teacher who gained fame due to a Joe Rogan podcast appearance last year. Compared to Paxton he is more uncontroversial, though has been bombarded with attacks from Republicans. Largely due to Paxton’s reputation and Trump’s overall unpopularity, polls show Talarico up by around 2 percent. However, I personally don’t believe that Texas is ready to vote for a Democrat, and that Paxton will pull out a win by 1 to 2 percentage points, similar to how Ted Cruz won in the 2018 midterms. If Talarico does win however, it will mark a seismic shift in American politics, as Texas has long been seen as the quintessential red state.
Ohio: The Ohio senate race is to fill the remainder of JD Vance’s term after he resigned from the seat to become Vice President. Vance’s appointed replacement, former Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted, is running against former senator Sherrod Brown,who is a Democrat. Brown served 3 terms in the Senate and many more in the House of Representatives until he narrowly lost re-election in 2024. However, 2026 is widely expected to be a much bluer environment than 2024 due to it being a midterm year, and Brown is narrowly leading the polls by around 3 to 4 percent. Considering Brown only narrowly lost his seat in 2024 and ran 8 percent ahead of Kamala Harris, I believe he will narrowly eke out a victory this cycle by around 1 percent.
Michigan: Michigan is arguably the most talked about race in these midterms, with progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed running against former GOP congressman Mike Rogers. El-Sayed is on the left wing of the Democratic party, and has faced heavy criticism from Republicans and even some democrats due to his ideology and association with controversial figures like Hasan Piker. On the other hand, Rogers is a more establishment politician, as he was a long-time congressman even before Trump ran in 2016. However, he has also faced attacks over his turn towards MAGA, with him recently supporting Trump’s trade war with Canada. The polls show a close race, with El-Sayed leading by around 2 percent. One other key factor is that Rogers already ran for Senate in 2024, which he narrowly lost while Trump won. Given that 2026 will be a bluer year than 2024, I expect El-Sayed to narrowly win.
Iowa: The Iowa Senate race is another that has flown under the radar. It is an open seat, where GOP Congresswoman Ashley Hinson is facing off against state house member Josh Turek. Both candidates are fairly uncontroversial, and the polls show Hinson with a narrow lead. Given that Iowa has shifted significantly to the right in recent years, I ultimately expect Hinson to win by around 5 percent.
Nebraska: Nebraska is quite an interesting election, as Republican incumbent Pete Ricketts is facing independent Dan Osborn, with no Democrat running. Osborn, who generally has more liberal views, did very well in his 2024 campaign for senate, losing by only 7 percent in a state Trump won by 20. The polls also show a very close election, with Pete Ricketts leading by only 1 percentage point. However, given that Ricketts is a popular former Governor and won his last race in a landslide, I expect him to win this one too, likely by a roughly 8 point margin.
Alaska: Alaska, like Nebraska, has traditionally been quite a red state, but is poised to be very competitive this year. Two term incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan is running against former Democrat congresswoman Mary Peltola. The election will be conducted using rank choice voting, where voters are ranked and eliminated until a winner is decided. Peltola is fairly well liked in Alaska and has run a formidable campaign despite losing re-election to her house seat in 2024. The incumbent Dan Sullivan is also fairly uncontroversial, but his campaign is slightly complicated by the fact that another person with the same name as him is running as an independent. The polls show a slight 1 point lead for Peltola, however we actually already have some hard data to use for this race, since primaries in Alaska involve all parties. In the primary, Peltola did very well, receiving 49.5 percent of the vote, while Senator Sullivan only received 41.4 percent. Furthermore, if we add the rest of the Democrats who ran, Peltola would have obtained a majority. As a result, I expect the Democrats win the Alaska senate seat, albeit by a very narrow margin.
To sum all of this up, I predict Democrats to flip the Senate with a 51 seat majority. Since I also expect Democrats to retake the House, this would be the first time a party has flipped both houses of congress since 2006. For a clearer view, below I have a map of my prediction below (no margins). This prediction is not final, and I plan to make updates until November as necessary.
