Political coverage today is largely focusing on the midterm elections, which is understandable because they are now only one month away. However, this past week, we also saw a preview of our next Presidential election in 2028. Over the past few months, Ted Cruz has been on a media tour, ostensibly to promote his new book about Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas. However, at the same time, Cruz has also used this publicity to discuss his own political prospects. In a podcast with the Lieutenant Governor of Texas, Cruz went so far as to say it is “no secret” he wants to be President. He also used other media appearances to refute the assumption that JD Vance will be the republican party’s nominee in 2028. Vance broke his silence regarding these remarks in a recent interview, saying that while he is “trying to help elect Republicans” in the midterms, Cruz is “running for president”. Cruz then fired back at Vance, calling him “insecure”. Cruz then claimed that not only is he helping Republicans in the midterms, but he also helped Vance get elected in 2022. Among both the Democratic and Republican fields, Cruz and Vance have given us our first 2028 spat.
Vance and Cruz aren’t the only Republicans eyeing the nomination, but they are the most likely to win. Vance is the sitting Vice President, and Cruz famously came in second place in the 2016 republican primaries. The two also represent two distinct visions for how the Republican party can go.
Cruz represents a more traditional strand of the Republican party. He favors the more interventionist and engaged foreign policy style of earlier Republican administrations, and was even a lawyer for George Bush’s 2000 campaign. During the early 2010’s, Cruz was also a face of the tea party movement, which argued for lower taxes, a smaller government, and free trade. Vance, on the other hand, seems to have the opposite views. He does not support aid to allies like Ukraine and is deeply skeptical about the Iran War, despite publicly supporting it. Rather than the conservative free market principles of the past, Vance favors economic populism and protectionism on trade. He also remains friendly with commentator Tucker Carlson, whose split with the Republican party was initially seen in a continuous 2025 interview with Cruz.
Ultimately, we must wait until the 2026 elections conclude to discuss 2028 in any deep way. For example, if the 2026 midterm is a huge blue wave, as many polls currently suggest, Vance may be spooked into sitting 2028 out. We also need to see the other candidates who will run; Right now, notable conservatives like John Kennedy, Ron DeSantis, Rand Paul, and Chris Christie have demonstrated interest. And these observations don’t even consider the Democrats, where the field is almost certainly going to be even more crowded than the Republican side. Stay tuned for my final midterm prediction, coming before November 3rd.